CNBC Morning Brief: Divergence in Job Reports Highlights Distinct Labor Markets
July 6, 2025 8:30 AM ET By Ellen Westbrook
An in-depth analysis reveals that the diverging trends in job reports highlight distinct labor markets in the U.S., amid growing demand for specific sectors driven by demographic changes and market dynamics.
Short Summary:
- The U.S. economy is projected to add approximately 4.7 million jobs from 2022 to 2032, with significant strengths in healthcare and technological sectors.
- Contrasting job trends highlight a shrinking retail sector and increased automation in manufacturing.
- Demographic factors such as an aging population are shaping the labor market, leading to distinct divergences between sectors.
Labor Market Overview: Diverging Trends and Future Projections
According to projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the nation’s labor landscape is poised for significant changes over the next decade. From 2022 to 2032, an estimated 4.7 million jobs are set to be added, bringing total employment to approximately 169.1 million. However, this growth is not uniform across all sectors, with notable divergences characterizing the future job market.
Projected Employment Growth by Sector
The BLS forecasts that most employment growth will be concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, as well as the professional, scientific, and technical services. These two sectors are anticipated to experience the most rapid expansion, driven largely by demographic shifts and technological advancements.
Healthcare and Social Assistance: The Front Runners
The healthcare and social assistance sector stands out with projected job gains of 2.1 million across the decade, accounting for nearly 45% of all new jobs. This growth can be attributed to the increasing number of older adults, who typically require more healthcare services. As highlighted by A.B. Gregory, a leading economist,
“The aging population will undoubtedly drive demand for both healthcare practitioners and support services, shaping job growth in this sector.”
Currently, the number of older adults in the U.S. is estimated at around 56.7 million and is projected to rise to 71.1 million by 2032. Their increasing healthcare needs, coupled with the growing prevalence of chronic conditions, will intensify the demand across various healthcare occupations, including home health and personal care aides, who are expected to see the fastest growth in job openings.
Professional and Technical Services: Momentum in IT
The professional, scientific, and technical services sector is also expected to flourish, with projections indicating the addition of approximately 960,400 jobs. This sector will benefit significantly from the rising demand for information technology (IT) and digital services as businesses increasingly rely on technology for operations. The anticipated growth in computer systems design and related services will likely propel a range of computer and mathematical occupations forward.
Contrasting Trends: Retail Trade and Manufacturing Declines
In contrast, the retail trade sector is projected to face the largest employment decline, with a potential loss of over 530,000 jobs by 2032. This decline is primarily due to the ongoing shift towards e-commerce, which has pressured traditional brick-and-mortar operations. Notably, stores like electronics and appliance retailers are among the most affected, accounting for a significant portion of job losses.
Manufacturing, too, is anticipated to witness a slight decrease in employment despite potential growth in specific industries tied to advanced manufacturing technologies. Automation continues to enhance efficiency, potentially resulting in fewer production jobs. However, sectors such as battery and semiconductor manufacturing are likely to add jobs due to rising domestic demand for technological products.
Escalating Demand in Information and E-Commerce
As e-commerce continues to expand, driven largely by changing consumer behaviors accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, significant growth is expected in the transportation and warehousing sector, with estimates of nearly 570,000 new jobs. This surge highlights an increasing need for logistics coordination, courier, and delivery services, emphasizing a notable shift within the labor market.
The Impact of Automation and Technological Advancements
Industries observed to experience employment declines, such as manufacturing and retail, illustrate the impact of automation technologies that streamline operations and reduce personnel requirements. It is vital to recognize that while automation serves to optimize productivity, it simultaneously constrains job availability in specific sectors.
Cultural Shifts and Policy Influences
The overarching narratives of demographic trends, technology utilization, and shifting societal values shape the job landscape. Public policies, such as those encouraging long-term care solutions and boosting domestic production of critical goods, will further influence job availability and sector stability in coming years.
The growing prevalence of chronic disease among aging individuals indicates additional demands on healthcare services. A concerning 85% of healthcare costs are attributed to chronic conditions, signifying a broader need for professionals to address these complex health challenges.
Conclusion: A Divided Landscape
As we move forward into the next decade, the U.S. labor market’s anticipated trajectory is characterized by dichotomies: flourishing growth in sectors driven by healthcare demands and technology, contrasted against challenges faced by traditional retail and manufacturing industries. Understanding this critical divergence will be important for stakeholders ranging from job seekers to policymakers, guiding decisions that usher in a resilient and adaptable workforce for the future.
Key Takeaways
- 4.7 million new jobs expected, heavily concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, and IT sectors.
- Retail and manufacturing face significant job losses due to e-commerce growth and automation.
- Demographic shifts and technological advancements will continue to promote distinct trends within labor markets.
About the Author
Ellen Westbrook is a Stanford University graduate with a bachelor’s degree in human resources and psychology. She’s the owner of a successful HR and payroll outsourcing firm in Colorado and a contributing writer for HR Costs. With 17 years of experience, Ellen helps businesses reduce risk, manage HR more efficiently, and grow with confidence.
